THE KIRKWOODCONSORTIUM
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Work sample 02 · Operating underwriting
15-Year OHFA
Cash Flow & DSCR
A sanitized hard-debt coverage schedule that tests annual performance, separates mechanical deferred-fee capacity from a proven waterfall, and exposes the post-abatement cliff.
Governing decision
Hard-debt coverage passes. Long-tail risk remains open.The 15-year schedule supports the selected permanent debt. The Year-16 post-abatement DSCR falls to approximately 0.43x.
What the model does
Test coverage without overstating cash availability.
The schedule preserves the distinction between hard-debt DSCR and cash actually available to repay deferred developer fee. It can show mechanical capacity while withholding a final DDF conclusion until the partnership and soft-debt waterfall is documented.
- Applies 2% income and 3% expense growth assumptions
- Links all DSCR controls back to the assumptions sheet
- Calculates annual, minimum, average, and maximum hard DSCR
- Keeps the DDF conclusion open until waterfall inputs exist
15-year cash flow tab · Annual hard-debt coverage and cash-capacity controls
Headline findings
Passing years can still conceal a structural cliff.
The selected permanent debt remains within the modeled hard-debt controls for the 15-year period. The independent Year-16 test shows why the abatement expiration belongs in the decision, not in a footnote.
Year-1, annual minimum, and 15-year average controls are satisfied.
$1,265,622 of cumulative modeled capacity versus $883,500 of DDF; actual waterfall remains open.
Modeled Year-16 NOI is approximately $96,393 and hard DSCR approximately 0.43x.
Assumptions tab · Inputs, governing controls, sources, and evidence gate
Live-deal application
Where this becomes useful to a developer.
The model can sit behind debt sizing, investor and lender review, funding applications, and closing updates while preserving the difference between a screening conclusion and a documented transaction conclusion.
- Own the operating underwriting as a live deal instrument through debt sizing, agency submission, and closing
- Hold annual DSCR and downside controls, updating as loan terms and capital conditions evolve
- Integrate soft-debt and partnership waterfall inputs as they are documented
- Document the abatement expiration and long-tail operating risk as named conditions in the sponsor's decision record
Independent, sanitized predevelopment analysis prepared by John Kirkwood Jr. This model is a screening and demonstration tool, not an agency approval, lender underwriting, investor commitment, or representation of a closed transaction.